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GDP (Gross Domestic Product)

GDP measures the value of all goods and services produced in a country over a period. Its growth shows the health of the economy.

GDP is usually released quarterly. In the US, the BEA publishes an advance estimate about a month after the quarter ends, followed by two revisions. The US figure is annualised, whereas the eurozone and the UK publish a non-annualised quarterly change.

Two consecutive quarters of contraction are often cited as a sign of recession, even though that is not an official definition everywhere.

GDP is a lagging indicator: it describes the past. Markets often prefer leading indicators such as PMIs. It can still trigger big moves if it is far from expectations.

The full lessonGDP, PMI, ISM and retail sales: measuring growthQuarterly GDP and its estimates, PMI and the 50 line, ISM, retail sales: learn to read growth indicators, from leading to lagging, and how forex reacts.← Full glossary