Analyse Trading
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Risk of ruin

Risk of ruin is the probability that a losing streak shrinks your capital to the point where you can no longer trade, or below a threshold you set.

It depends on three inputs: your win rate, your win/loss ratio and the percentage of capital risked per trade. Even a strategy with positive expectancy can wipe out an account if the risk per trade is too high.

Losing streaks run longer than people imagine. With a 50% win rate, seven or eight losses in a row will eventually happen over a few hundred trades.

This is the strongest argument for low risk per trade: cutting your risk from 3% to 1% doesn't just divide your loss per trade by three, it makes ruin far less likely.

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