Reading a track record: judge a trader on their real numbers

On social media, everyone wins. Screenshots of accounts up 300% are everywhere, signal sellers post perfect weeks. Before you follow a trader, copy their positions or pay for their analysis, you need to be able to read their history the way a professional would.

A track record is the complete, verifiable history of an account's trades. Not a selection, not a hand-picked month: everything, from day one. Here's what to look at, in order.

Return versus drawdown

The first instinct is to look at the return. On its own, it's the least informative number there is. What matters is the risk taken to get it, and the best measure of that risk is the maximum drawdown: the largest drop in equity from a peak.

History length and number of trades

One spectacular month proves nothing. Over a short period, luck can explain almost any result. A history is worth more when it covers several months, ideally several years, and goes through different market conditions: trends, ranges, bouts of high volatility.

The number of trades matters as much as the length. Ten trades in a year, even if all winners, is far too small a sample to judge. Several hundred trades give a much more reliable picture of the trader's real stats.

Look at how consistent the curve is, too. An account that made almost all its return on two or three exceptional trades has a very different profile from one that grows month after month. In the first case, mentally remove those few trades: if nothing is left, you know the result mostly depends on one-off hits.

Finally, check how long the account has really existed. A history that starts right after a strong trend, or that was recently reset to zero, may be hiding a previous account that ended badly.

Profit factor and risk size

The profit factor divides total gross profit by total gross loss. Below 1, the account loses money. Above 1, it makes money. A very high profit factor on only a few trades should make you suspicious rather than excited.

Next, look at the risk per trade. Detailed histories show the size of each position and the stop distance. Watch out for these red flags:

• No stop loss: a very high win rate with no stops often hides losing trades left open until they come back, or don't.
• Positions that grow after a loss: that's the signature of a martingale, which eventually blows up the account.
• Small, steady wins and rare but huge losses: the curve looks perfect until the day a single loss wipes out months.
• Size out of line with the account: 10% risk per trade produces great returns until the inevitable losing streak.

Live account, demo account and screenshots

A history on a demo account isn't worth the same as one on a live account. On demo there's no money at stake, so no emotional pressure, and execution can be kinder than on a live account. It's useful for learning, not for proving skill.

As for screenshots, they prove nothing. A web page's code can be edited in seconds in any browser, a demo platform can show huge balances, and nothing tells you how many losing accounts were closed before the winning one was shown.

Where to find verified histories

A track record is reliable when it's read directly from the broker account by a third party, without the trader being able to change it. That's what Analyse-Trading does: histories are imported from a real connected trading account, with its trades, equity curve and drawdown, not typed in by hand.

1. Check where the data comes from: an account connected to the broker or manual entry?
2. Look at the length of the history and the number of trades before the return.
3. Compare the return with the maximum drawdown.
4. Check the profit factor and the risk per trade.
5. Check whether it's a live account or a demo account.

Even an excellent history guarantees nothing for the future. Past performance is not a reliable indicator of future results, and leveraged trading loses money for most retail traders. A good track record only helps you avoid the riskiest profiles.